Backcasting, I have now learned, is the opposite of forecasting. Makes sense. It’s the process of starting with a desirable future then working backwards to achieve it, while forecasting is predicting the future based on current trends.
Forecasting is often bleak because it’s about the continuation of trends that are happening now. Using backcasting, we can create whatever future we want. Think of it like this: Imagine a future. Say, one of peace, equality, tolerance, prosperity, respect and freedom. Could be global, could be local. Now, from that vision of a better future, work backwards and try to figure out how you get from this present to that future then put a plan in place to make it happen.
Everyone employs backcasting all the time in every aspect of their everyday life, we just don’t think of it like that. You want to eat every day for the next week? Buy food for the week ahead. You want to get rid of that flabby midsection? Start going to the gym. The problem with applying the (pretty basic) backcasting principle to something huge and impersonal like World Peace is that – while most people think they can do something to make their personal futures better – they don’t think they can personally do anything to make World Peace happen; it’s too big to think about so why make yourself depressed. Wrong – World Peace will only happen when everyone both wants it to happen and does something to make it happen. Be the change you want to see. ‘Doing something’ can be as insignificant as picking up the candy wrapper in the street and putting it in the trash rather than wishing someone else would do it. ‘Doing something’ can be as insignificant as spending 10 minutes a day learning why things are the way they are then thinking about how they could be better. ‘Doing something’ can be as insignificant as talking to those around you about these things rather than ignoring them and hoping someone else fixes it.
Backcasting is already used for things like urban planning and increasingly so for areas like sustainable resource management (see this link as an example). The rise of the internet has made backcasting via open-collaboration projects much more accessible to larger numbers of people. Wikipedia itself is a prime example of backcasting, for example, the end goal being an online encyclopaedia compiled and edited collaboratively by its own users. Every day, new entries are added and existing entries edited and refined, the site users themselves (at least theoretically) acting to prevent bias or highlight unverified information, working together towards the best possible end product.
This blog is essentially an example of backcasting too, in that the end goal for me individually is to pick through all the things I should know about (but don’t yet) that I think will be important pieces in putting together the World Peace puzzle. Looking way down the road – if I can keep the momentum up on this project long enough – my aim will be not only to complete my own World Peace Adventure via the blog but to eventually use this format as a multimedia education project to enable larger numbers of readers and users to choose their own adventure towards the same goal.
So, I at least understand what the term ‘backcasting’ is now and it makes sense. Thanks for bearing with me. There’s not much of a multiple-choice ‘choose your own adventure’ for me to offer up to the reader here, so let’s just jump straight back to Adventure 3: United Nations Charter and get started on this journey proper.
Thanks – fair comment, this post was always a little vague. I’ve edited it a little and added more text, hopefully it’s a little clearer now. Thanks for the feedback! sam
Interesting site.
Thanks – it’s a work in progress!!